Saturday, February 23, 2013

Saturday Paper Reading

Reading the paper, yo. These are the things I wanted to comment on.

Randy Sportak sounding the clarion bell about a month before the trade deadline. Which I like, obviously, but would have liked even more last year. The notable thing to take away from the thang is this juicy stat: The  Flames probably need to have 56 points to make the playoffs, and that would require them to go 19-10-4. 

So is it true? Because shit unless the Flames trade for Rudy Gay that aignt happening. 

Last year eighth place team had 95 points. 48/82= ~58% (I'm using the real number not the rounded in the calculations) * 95 = 55.6.  So yeah, 55 or 56 points seems like a reasonable number based on last year (and taking the three year average it is 55.99). 

And Flames currently have 13 points. Not good. So what about this 19-10-4 ish? Well, 48-15=33. 19+10+4 =33. And that indeed equals 55 points. 

We are fucking doomed, homie. 

Can I provide the weary masses any hope? I can try. What Sportak's math depends on is the pace of point accumulation being similar to what is is in a 82 game season. What if it isn't?

Points per game? I'm dumb, so that's what I'm going to go with as a proxy for pace. 09-10 is 95/82 = 1.1585. 10-11 it's 1.1829. In 11-12 it's 1.1585 again. So average that jazz and we get 1.1666. 

Currently (this year) the team occupying eighth place is on a 18/16 = 1.125 pace. If we translate that, I think we get (1.125*48)...54 points. (For those curious, the team is on a 0.8666 pace, good for ~42 points.)


Good on Sportak for bringing this to our attention. 

George Johnson calls someone with zero points a rocket ship. 

Actually if you can stomach your way past that Johnson calms us all down and reminds us that Cervenka was hit in the throat with a puck last game, which is why he was sat in the third period. You can choose to buy it or not. 

And SVEN is back so Cervenka is getting sat for him, not Aliu. Which makes it easier to swallow.

Odland/Hall get a good quote from the coach:

 “We’re talking about a game of passion that world-class athletes play,” Hartley said. “You need a certain size. I think Akim brings that size.”

Which is exactly the problem. I get it looks bad when the team lets a guy check their goalie. I do believe it speaks to the group dynamic as a whole, and I do think it is reasonable for people to suspect there is something wrong with a team that doesn't stand up for individual teammates. But the real issue is the team is too small. (And they are losing, which could go along way to explaining their bad group dynamic we are all speculating they have.)

Vicki Hall uses GAA, like it's a stat that can convey meaning. 

Odland. Best writer they have on their staff. 

Furthermore I think the genius behind the goal song should be fired. 


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