Thursday, February 23, 2012

How Many Short Forwards Are In The League?

We are talking SVEN. We see him listed as 5'10 in more places than we see him listed as 5'11, so we are going with that. Sven is 5'10. Whatever. He is not six feet or taller.

How many forwards at that height play in the NHL? And that's all we mean, play. We don't mean play well, we don't mean provide scoring impact, we just mean play.

We went to the team pages from all the clubs in the NHL, and just looked down their active roster.

The results:


So less than a third of the forwards in this league are short. (Math was done quick and dirty, as the chart says, so don't take these as hard gospel numbers).

Obviously though, the real question is of these players, how many of them provide offensive impact? Intuitively one would assume it would be less than the total, but how much less?

We haven't taken a look, but when we do, we will post the results here as an update to the post.

For those who can't read between the lines, the question here is obviously whether or not the team should view SVEN as an asset the club could use to get a more established player, or whether the club should view SVEN as a real player and hold on to him.

But with less than a third of the league being short players, there is obviously risk associated with holding on to SVEN. Much like all prospects.

However, if, hypothetical, the club had the opportunity to turn SVEN into the 6'4, 300 shot potential of a Jeff Carter, then, in our view, you have to weigh the risk that SVEN may not develop against the fact that Carter is proven. The fact that less than a third of the league's forwards are of the height SVEN is, it would seem to indicate that shorter players face more developmental hurdles than taller players. And this needs to be taken into consideration before the fans, the media, and the club itself go about labelling SVEN 'untouchable'.

Carter was traded for a first round drafted player, another first round pick, and a third. He has lost value since his trade from Philly. The Flames have picks to trade, and SVEN may be enticing to CBJ as he a first round drafted player enjoying a very nice season.

To us, a SVEN for Carter straight up deal would be, in Bob McKenzie's words, a 'no-brainer'. We doubt Carter could be had for that price, however. Still, even a first and SVEN for Carter wouldn't scare us away. Again, SVEN isn't guaranteed, and Carter is proven.

Carter would provide a nice insurance policy against Jokinen leaving or demanding too much salary, as well. Something to think about.

Furthermore, I think Peter Loubardias Ken King should be fired.

4 comments:

  1. Good Ideas, Beersy!

    Personally, when it comes to a trade for Carter. At this point I'd rather trade Backlund (legitimately only going to be a 3rd line center his whole career based on how he's played 2 seasons) And allow Sven that chance to develop. 2 pts/ game almost in the WHL is not a "HUGE" gamble in my mind. I want to see Sven develop for a year before I trade him away for the likes of a Carter. Unfortunately we're in a tough position and we can't do like we've done so many times with St Louis, Hull and so forth. Let future league stars go simple because we need a bigger proven guy.

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  2. I think you are missing two factors here:

    1. The risk that Carter's contract becomes a huge interminable millstone that we can never rid ourselves of. If Carter's foot is really messed, we may get LTIR relief, but that is not the same as cap space. And if he has just been hurt down to a "serviceable" level, whew boy.

    2. How cheap we get Sven for through his RFA years. Even if Sven turns out to only be a 20 goal guy for the next 2 or 3 years, those are 20 goal years that we get for cheap. And then we get him on an RFA deal - still for cheap. We can then use that cap space to acquire another centre if needed.

    The trade is not SVEN for Carter. Its SVEN for Carter - #3.5 millionish in cap space for 3-5 years.

    That bet does not look so hot.

    -Tach

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  3. Hey this made the Herald! http://www.calgaryherald.com/news/index.html

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  4. i can't believe the herald linked to a page with half naked women on it. totally rad !!!

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