Thursday, April 7, 2011

Statistical Minded

Statistical minded you've been blinded / Lookin for a style like ours you can't find it / They are the audience we are Dome-Beericists / Sometimes the suckas on the side gotta hear this /

Well, we aignt here for no frontin', just to say a little something...

So, we are aware that the season isn't over, so sample issues, all that. The fact we are looking at one season is a bit of a sample error, all that. But...

According to the good folks at BehindTheNet, there were 508 NHL players this year who played in at least 50 games this season. Of those, only 52 of them had a scoring rate equal to or greater than 1 goal per 60 minutes (one of those players was Zherdev, by the way, who the Flames could have picked up for free at the deadline, but chose not to, and instead picked up Modin, who sucked fucking balls, and didn't provide any injury insurance for the club, which hurt it when Moss and Morrison went down. Yeah, we are still fucking pissed off about that. Fucking idiot Feaster and Ken King not getting Zherdev because he is bad in the locker room? Who gives a fuck? He is good on the ice. Whatever.). Of those 52, 31 of them play in the Western Conference. Of those 31, 5 of them, 16% of them, play on the Calgary Flames.

Say what?

Chart time: (and so everyone knows, this is only looking at what was done during 5v5 play)


Click it if you can't read it. Anyways, of note: We hate the second assist, so we have added a column that is called P/60 - A2/60. This is, obviously, points per 60 minutes with the second assist per 60 taken out. You will notice that Tanguays numbers are almost unaffected by the change, where a player like Burrows is effected heavily by it. Also, we have provided the cap hits of those players, and the average cap hit of all those players. Bourque makes market rate, who knew? Actually, that is a little misleading; the range of salaries is so huge (6.96 million dollars between the lowest and the highest) because some teams are paying their players on entry level or restricted level contracts, while others are paying the 'market rate' (set when they had to sign their UFA or signed another teams UFA) for their players.

Which speaks to the importance of getting cheap talent; the more players your team can have on it that are good, but are paid less than what a good player makes, the more room your team has in the cap to add players, good or otherwise. That room could be used to subsidize overpaid players (like overpaying JBlow but paying Gio peanuts, which ends at the start of next year), which is pertinent in the Flames case, or that room could be used to go out into the market to add a player that compliments your team (like, we don't know, Brad Richards).

Whatever, bluster and noise at this point. If the Flames cared about cap efficiency, they would place importance on their scouts, which means they would have fired Duane Sutter and Tod Button years ago.

Anyways, here is the breakdown of that list, with the players allocated to the teams they play on. You will not believe your eyes.


Charts show funny things. Actually, 5v5, the Flames can score. It's hard to score 5v5, so we count the ability to score 5v5 as good. The Flames 5V5 For/Against is actually pretty high, at 10th league wide, and 6th in the conference. As much as we hate the fact they let Dave Lowry coach the power play, the Flames actually have a pretty good one, at 19.3%, which puts them 8th league wide, and 6th in the conference. The team even outshoots it's opponents: The Flames shot differential sits at +2 per game, good for 10th in the league and 5th in the conference.

Darryl Sutter was right: this team can score goals. The problem appears to be with the defence. Isn't that why Brent Sutter is the coach, for defence? Isn't that why we are paying JBlow damn near 7 million dollars a year? Oh well.

The Calgary Flames have given up 227 goals this year, against scoring 239. That's a difference of +12. That's not good, especially since this team is supposed to have a world class goalie, and at least 3 top 4 defencemen in Gio, Reggie, and JBlow (who are going to eat up $14.72 million dollars in cap next year). .

More charts!

In case you wanted to see it. Is the team good enough defensively that it can go a whole season with a +12 cushion and make the playoffs? Obviously not. Is the team coached well enough that it can go a whole season with a +12 differential over 81 games and make the playoffs? Again, no it isn't.

The Flames are going to miss the playoffs by a 2- 5 points, most likely. That's a game or two. We are presenting it like the Flames suck and are terrible, but they are actually closer to being on the right side of the bubble than the wrong side. If this season was to be replayed, it isn't inconceivable that it would make 8th place. But 8th isn't good enough, and it isn't what the organization should be shooting for. Not if they want to charge us what they charge for tickets. If you charge top 5 prices, we expect a top 5 hockey team. Crazy, we know.

Anyways, one more chart.


So, Jim Playfair...he available?

Furthermore, I think Peter Loubardias should be fired.

5 comments:

  1. "not getting Zherdev because he is bad in the locker room? Who gives a fuck? He is good on the ice. Whatever"....

    Locker room doesn't matter? You're fucking retarded.

    more pics of hot women, less shitty takes.

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  2. The GD during Playfair's year is misleading. Partially because Kipper was still worth a damn back then, but partially because the team enjoyed some of it's best SH% during the Sutter era. In terms of shots against and overall team quality, the 06-07 Flames actually weren't that good.

    shots for/game = 27.3 (27th)
    shots against/game = 30.5 (21st)
    SD/game = -3.2 (worst of all Sutter Flames teams)

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  3. Anon, Could it be that you place so much importance on the 'chemistry' in a locker room because you have rarely been in one?

    Kent, all the stat work we do on this site is flawed and misleading...

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  4. Anon:
    Since you didn't know this:
    Locker room chemistry is called the team is winning. If the lazy Russian scored goals for us, it wouldn't matter if he was a douche b/c the team, in theory, would be winning. Championship teams are full of people who hated each other.

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  5. ^^^ Conversely, country clubs are full of people who get along just great! Hint, hint.

    ReplyDelete